University of Tokyo Estimates 70% Chance 7.0 Earthquake To Hit Tokyo Within 4 Years
A research team at University of Tokyo Earthquake Research Institute announced today that they have estimated a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake occurring directly beneath Japan’s capital city of Tokyo with the next 4 years.
The research was conducted in light of increased seismic activity in the Tokyo metropolitan area as a result of the magnitude 9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred last March.
Professor Naoshi Hirata calculated the probability using the empirical rule that the frequency of occurrence of earthquakes increases by 1/10 for every increase in magnitude by 1.
This estimation necessitates a much high level of urgency when compared to the Japanese government’s current estimate that the same earthquake will occur with a 70% chance within 30 years.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, earthquakes ranging from magnitude 3 to magnitude 6 have occurred in the Tokyo metropolitan area at an average of 1.48 per day since December 2011, a rate 5 times that of before the Great East Japan Earthquake.
While this earthquake is estimated to be 2 points lower in intensity than the Great East Japan Earthquake, were it to strike at or near Tokyo—one of the world’s most populous and economically important cities—the damage could even more devastating both domestically and internationally.
Source: Yomiuri Shimbun
